Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
